Interesting situation in the Senate vis a vis ObamaCare: there are a mess of Democratic senators in center-right leaning states who'll come up for re-election soon. How do they feel about casting a vote for what, as it turns out, is a massively unpopular bill? Here's the list:
Up for re-election in 2010
- Evan Bayh (IN)
- Blanche Lincoln (AR)
- Harry Reid (NV)
- Arlen Specter (PA)
Harry Reid is also massively unpopular in Nevada currently and 2010 will be the fight of his life. He's trailing in polls behind two potential Republican challengers who haven't even announced yet.
Specter is just unpopular - his only reason for changing parties was that there simply wasn't any way he'd have gotten the Republican nomination, and it looks like he may be challenged in the Dem nomination process.
Up for re-election in 2012
- Ken Conrad (ND)
- Jon Tester (MT)
- Robert Byrd (WV)
- Claire McCaskill (MO)
Conrad will face a difficult run in North Dakota in any case, he just needs to ask himself if he feels like committing political seppuku for the Community Organizer In Chief.
Byrd probably won't survive to run in 2012, so he may not be concerned as much about his vote here. As a former Grand Wizard for the KKK, he's probably not all that concerned about his legacy either. He's probably a likely voter for ObamaCare, if only out of respect for fellow Democrat Ted Kennedy.
McCaskill's in a world of hurt. Unpopular in her home state & being seen as an Obama-bot nationally, McCaskill is rapidly becoming a marginal figure in national politics. A vote for ObamaCare probably means she's looking for another job after January 2013. She'll need one.
Up for re-election in 2014
Whether and how much an ObamaCare vote hurts these guys depends a lot on what else is going on in 2013 and 2014. Unfortunately for those up for re-election in 2014, ObamaCare tax increases and mandates kick in 1/1/2013, so the unpopular parts of the bill will be in full effect in time for the 2014 election.
- Mary Landreiu (LA)
- Mark Pryor (AR)
- Tim Johnson (SD)
- Mark Begich (AK)
- Mark Warner (VA)
- Kay Hagan (NC)
Landreiu is probably the most likely to be swayed into not voting for ObamaCare. She had a tough race in 2008 and will undoubtedly face a tough race in 2014 in a state that's trending right. Pryor is also in a state that's trending right and I'd suspect he and Blanch Lincoln will vote as a block on the bill.
Tim Johnson is an anomaly in a state that's been center-right and is trending right. Thune chased the sitting Democratic majority leader Tom Daschle out of office in 2004 - South Dakota voters felt that Thune had become too much a part of the Washington machine (they were right - has Tom Daschle ever physically been back to South Dakota since the 2004 election?). Voters may be getting that same feeling about Johnson. And they'd be right.
Begich is in a tough spot since he'd never have been senator at all if Stevens hadn't been chased out of office by an overzealous Justice Department. He's probably f**ked for re-election anyway, the question for him right now is: Does he want to seal the deal by voting for ObamaCare?
The list above is of 14 senators who each have some very good reasons to vote no on ObamaCare. It's very unlikely that any Republican senator other than Snowe or Collins will vote for it. Liebermann is probably a no for the bill in any form. 60 - 1 + 2 = 61 votes. If 2 out of the 14 listed above vote no, there can be no vote for cloture.
Interesting times.