Tiny Cat Warriors

White House Gate Crashers

 As we're learning more and more about Tareq and Michaela Salahi, it's sort of pathetic their need to be well known has apparently taken over their entire lives.  Hopefully they'll be prosecuted for something they are surely guilty of - violating Title 18 USC section 1001 for lying to a federal employee.  Which they did when representing to the Secret Service that they had invitations to the state dinner.

As I've been reading the stories about these two idiot fame-whores, it's becoming clear that their need to chase the spotlight (an 1,800 guest wedding?  Come on.) has become the centerpiece of their lives.  As I was reading the stories, it reminded me of George and Pansy in Seattle years and years ago.  George and Pansy, a son and mother team were known for a couple of decades as being a) crazy as bedbugs and b) crashing every affair from funerals to weddings to bridge openings to ground-breaking ceremonies to graduations.  You name it, George and Pansy turned up.  George always had a camera (and this in the time before tiny digital cameras - this was a big old film camera) and would always get pictures of Pansy with the few most important individuals attending the event.  More about George and Pansy here.  

 

Counting noses on ObamaCare

Interesting situation in the Senate vis a vis ObamaCare: there are a mess of Democratic senators in center-right leaning states who'll come up for re-election soon.  How do they feel about casting a vote for what, as it turns out, is a massively unpopular bill?  Here's the list:

Up for re-election in 2010

• Evan Bayh (IN)
• Blanche Lincoln (AR)
• Harry Reid (NV)
• Arlen Specter (PA)

Harry Reid is also massively unpopular in Nevada currently and 2010 will be the fight of his life.  He's trailing in polls behind two potential Republican challengers who haven't even announced yet.

Specter is just unpopular - his only reason for changing parties was that there simply wasn't any way he'd have gotten the Republican nomination, and it looks like he may be challenged in the Dem nomination process.

Up for re-election in 2012

• Ken Conrad (ND)
• Jon Tester (MT)
• Robert Byrd (WV)
• Claire McCaskill (MO)

Conrad will face a difficult run in North Dakota in any case, he just needs to ask himself if he feels like committing political seppuku for the Community Organizer In Chief.  

Byrd probably won't survive to run in 2012, so he may not be concerned as much about his vote here.  As a former Grand Wizard for the KKK, he's probably not all that concerned about his legacy either.  He's probably a likely voter for ObamaCare, if only out of respect for fellow Democrat Ted Kennedy.

McCaskill's in a world of hurt.  Unpopular in her home state & being seen as an Obama-bot nationally, McCaskill is rapidly becoming a marginal figure in national politics.  A vote for ObamaCare probably means she's looking for another job after January 2013.  She'll need one.

Up for re-election in 2014

Whether and how much an ObamaCare vote hurts these guys depends a lot on what else is going on in 2013 and 2014.  Unfortunately for those up for re-election in 2014, ObamaCare tax increases and mandates kick in 1/1/2013, so the unpopular parts of the bill will be in full effect in time for the 2014 election.

• Mary Landreiu (LA)
• Mark Pryor (AR)
• Tim Johnson (SD)
• Mark Begich (AK)
• Mark Warner (VA)
• Kay Hagan (NC)

Landreiu is probably the most likely to be swayed into not voting for ObamaCare.  She had a tough race in 2008 and will undoubtedly face a tough race in 2014 in a state that's trending right.  Pryor is also in a state that's trending right and I'd suspect he and Blanch Lincoln will vote as a block on the bill.

Tim Johnson is an anomaly in a state that's been center-right and is trending right.  Thune chased the sitting Democratic majority leader Tom Daschle out of office in 2004 - South Dakota voters felt that Thune had become too much a part of the Washington machine (they were right - has Tom Daschle ever physically been back to South Dakota since the 2004 election?).  Voters may be getting that same feeling about Johnson.  And they'd be right.

Begich is in a tough spot since he'd never have been senator at all if Stevens hadn't been chased out of office by an overzealous Justice Department.  He's probably f**ked for re-election anyway, the question for him right now is: Does he want to seal the deal by voting for ObamaCare?  

The list above is of 14 senators who each have some very good reasons to vote no on ObamaCare.  It's very unlikely that any Republican senator other than Snowe or Collins will vote for it.  Liebermann is probably a no for the bill in any form.  60 - 1 + 2 = 61 votes.  If 2 out of the 14 listed above vote no, there can be no vote for cloture.  

Interesting times.

Great essay by Paul Graham

Here.  Paul Graham of Y Combinator discusses the [dismal] future of publishing, music companies and, (probably) movies. 

Funny joke from Jay Leno

This from Don Surber's blog:

Meanwhile, Jay Leno did a joke off an item in the book: “They said this one blonde was especially suggestive and kept rubbing up against the president. Finally, Michelle said, ‘Look, Chris Matthews, get away from my husband’.”

Incoming posts

This was a big (ugh) travel week for me: SFO - Denver - SFO on Monday followed by SFO - ORD - CLE on Wednesday (2 1/2 hours late getting into Cleveland, thank you United) and CLE - ORD - SFO on Friday.  I had plenty of time to ponder a) the current state of travel, b) the changes in business mores in general since I started in the business world, and c) read Tapping the Source by Kem Nunn.  Think I’ll tackle each subject in a separate blog post.

At least "it's" not a vegetable

OK, Harry Reid's never really been a great off-the-cuff speaker, but this one's a winner.  In claiming that the Senate health care reform process was indeed bipartisan, Harry explained it this way:

“We’ve always had a place at the table for Republicans. There’s one there today. We hope it bears fruit,” he said.

We hope "it" bears fruit?  Really?  He's probably talking about Olympia Snowe & although I rarely agree with her, I'm guessing she's about as likely to bear fruit anytime soon as I am to sprout wings and fly.

Note to Harry: Republicans aren't really that much different than you.  They don't bear fruit.  Try talking to them.  Really.  You might learn something.  But hurry, fruit trees will be dropping their leaves pretty soon.

Banksy opening an exhibit at the Bristol Museum

Thanks to Chase Jarvis for linking us all up with info about Banksy's exhibit this summer at the Bristol Museum (Bristol is, maybe, Banksy's hometown).  Chase's entry has links to a youtube video and a current BBC news report about the exhibition.  This would be worth a trip to the UK to attend - exhibit runs through summer 2009.

I was right...

My prediction here turned out to be pretty accurate.

Prediction on tax receipts

I'll go out on a limb here and predict that in the next few weeks you'll be seeing lots of newspaper stories about how federal and state (particularly California and New York) tax receipts are down.  Way down.  Why now?  Higher income people generally don't file their personal income tax returns early because they don't get all of the information from banks, brokerage firms, etc. until the end of March at least.  A goodly number of them end up getting extensions of time to file their returns because they're still waiting on information from partnerships they own interests in, etc.  While they can get an extension of time to file, they can't get an extension of time to pay - their extension must be accompanied by the remaining amount of whatever they own toward 2008 taxes.  Also due on April 15th are their first quarter estimated income tax payments for 2009.  Generally, those payments are based on the amount that the taxpayer owed for 2008.  

One of the problems with having a hugely progressive income tax is that the income of upper income taxpayers fluctuates substantially more than middle income or lower income taxpayers.  If, like California, something like 70% of state personal income tax receipts come from the highest 1% of taxpayers in the state, the receipts of the state are tied extremely closely to the fortunes of those taxpayers and the ebbs and flows of their taxable incomes.  For years taxpayers have begged state legislatures to put something aside for a rainy day.  Guess what - it's raining.

I'm getting to the point shortly - while I admittedly only run across isn't a representative sample of upper income taxpayers, in fact it's entirely anecdotal.  That said, I don't know anyone who owes money this year at April 15th - a bunch of the upper income people I know not only don't owe anything at April 15th for their extension, they don't owe a first quarter payment for 2009 since their 2008 overpayment will more than cover their first quarter payment.  A goodly number of those people won't owe anything for the second quarter payments either.  

What's my point?  People who were handing over metric buttloads of money last April 15th to the IRS and the state treasuries aren't paying anything this year.  A lot of them are getting money back from the states.  The upshot?  The government budget & deficit situation is much much much worse than anyone at the helm knows.  

Finally, a little honesty in politics...

Entry here, from the Montgomery Advertiser:

Despite President Barack Obama's commitment to bipartisanship, Rogers says Speaker of House Nancy Pelosi (whom he described as "crazy," "mean as a snake" and "Tom DeLay in a skirt") and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid didn't get that memo.